Will Ukraine War End in 2024? Experts Weigh In

“The civil war in Northern Ireland ended partly because outside powers [the US in particular] put a lot of pressure and helped to build a framework [for peace]”. The report, cites two people with close links to the Kremlin and says that senior US officials were made aware of the signals in December via an unnamed intermediary. To keep up the military effort, Putin may need further mobilisation (something he said at his press conference not to be necessary). This is not a prediction but it would not wholly be a surprise if he decided that this was as good a moment as any to suggest the possibility of a ceasefire arrangement. Otherwise he would be stuck with many more months of war without tangible progress and a growing sense of futility. “Futility” was my most used word in 2023 in connection with Russian policy.

• Notably, in a reversal of perceptions a year ago, some experts could envision a decisive Ukrainian victory against Russia, but none forecasts a decisive Russian win against Ukraine.
• A Kremlin spokesperson has denied a report that Russian President Vladimir Putin reached out to the US about talks on ending the war in Ukraine, Reuters reported.
• He was reported to have sent messages through “multiple channels” since September that he was prepared to do a deal, including freezing the fighting along the current front lines.
• Or Mr Putin could resort to more-drastic measures, including the use of nuclear weapons, Dr Oliker warns.
• A Russian mobilization of more conscripts, even if ill-trained and poorly equipped, could shore up Russian defenses.

Attention in the Ukrainian capital has been fixed squarely on the mutiny of the Wagner Group, its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, and its consequences for Vladimir Putin and the conduct of the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons. The most strategically important part of Ukraine that remains occupied by Russia  is Crimea, which is what we call the "decisive terrain". It is in a fight for its survival and understands what Russia will do if it stops.

Leadership change

Having to rely on Donald Trump both winning the November US election (the next major landmark event) and then doing what he wants is not wholly comfortable. A Christmas Eve story in the New York Times claimed that Putin might be trying to find a way out.  https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-many-tanks-did-russia-lose-in-ukraine.html  was reported to have sent messages through “multiple channels” since September that he was prepared to do a deal, including freezing the fighting along the current front lines. There have been a number of proposals in circulation, from China’s last February and those later from the BRICS countries. They are problematic for Putin because if taken seriously they would demand far more of Russia than Ukraine (as Zelensky was quick to notice). This is because they have stuck with the UN Charter which precludes the sort of territorial annexations expected by Putin.

• The Russian ruling elite saw the Soviet Union’s collapse merely as a reconfiguration in which former Soviet countries would “continue to be together in some way”, Popova told Al Jazeera, whereas Ukraine saw it as an opportunity to be fully independent.
• As Russian tactics become more aggressive, the Ukrainian people are paying ever higher costs.
• Russia has also suffered immense losses on the battlefield, with US officials estimating a toll of almost 200,000.
• Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas.
• Under Article 5 of the military alliance's charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all.
• Yet I recently posed them to several top historians, political scientists, geopolitical forecasters, and former officials—because only in imagining potential futures can we understand the rough bounds of the possible, and our own agency in influencing the outcome we want.

With Western hesitancy bolstering Russia, and in the absence of either a coup or a health-related issue leading to Putin's demise, the only foreseeable outcome will be a negotiated settlement that for now both sides continue to refuse. Compared with this time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, politically more than militarily. We asked three military analysts how they think events may unfold in the coming 12 months. President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped. Complete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders.

Biden says he'll back Ukraine as long as it takes. But some take aim at the price tag

Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. Some Ukrainian officials acknowledged the fear that gives Western leaders sleepless nights, that a public collapse of President Putin's regime might lead to real danger as his would-be successors jockey for power in a state with the world's biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons. “If Russia were to use nuclear weapons, the West might then become directly involved in the war in Ukraine in terms of putting forces in [the country]. A lot was riding on Ukraine’s offensive, including the added value that might result from western equipment transfers and training programmes. If Moscow persisted in its war, the West may continue to arm Ukraine, enforce biting sanctions, and control some $300 billion in Russian financial assets. Only liberalizers who withdrew forces from Ukraine might relieve the pressure.

More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. Many in the international community feared that the conflict could spread outside of Ukraine’s borders. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv was already an active NATO partner, sending  a handful of troops to Afghanistan during the alliance’s mission in the country.

News in language

William Courtney is an adjunct senior fellow at RAND and was U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia, and the U.S.-USSR commission to implement the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. It does seem the West will continue to ensure that Ukrainian forces retain their qualitative lead in arms and access to Western intelligence information. A Russian mobilization of more conscripts, even if ill-trained and poorly equipped, could shore up Russian defenses.

• Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders?
• But the sizable swaths of terrain Ukraine wants to liberate will take time, and to even build the necessary forces will take six months, Donahoe estimated.
• The US and its allies were quick to provide aid that has been vital to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
• A Christmas Eve story in the New York Times claimed that Putin might be trying to find a way out.

Russia achieves a breakthrough in the east either very soon, before Ukraine gets its western weaponry in place in a few weeks, or after a Ukrainian counteroffensive fails. The invaders’ key advantage is the number of troops available – about 300,000, almost all of whom are already committed to Ukraine. Ukraine’s war reaches the one-year mark with no immediate end in sight. Both sides want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off. The "special military operation" in Ukraine has already beaten most analysts expectations and, with more offensives planned for this year, there appears to be no end in sight. Professor Clarke said the downfall of Mr Putin was only a matter of time and would likely be brought about from within the military and Russia's security service, with the support of oligarchs fed up with the Kremlin.

• Maybe it takes longer for Russian forces to secure cities like Kyiv whose defenders fight from street to street.
• But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire.
• That hasn't let up, if only because it's a powerful emotional and recruitment tool.

A Kremlin spokesperson has denied a report that Russian President Vladimir Putin reached out to the US about talks on ending the war in Ukraine, Reuters reported. All one can say is that intense diplomatic activity can generate its own dynamic and could be a feature of 2024 largely absent from 2023. After a year in which both sides looked forward to military advances and were disappointed, this new year starts with expectations so low that the only way we can possibly be surprised is by developments that get us closer to a resolution. There was certainly more optimism surrounding the Ukrainian position at the start of the year than there was at the end.

• As a result, Russia essentially stopped flying fighter jets over Ukraine.
• Mykhailo Podolyak, another close adviser to President Zelensky, agreed there were "several groups of people who want to take power in Russia".
• The most strategically important part of Ukraine that remains occupied by Russia is Crimea, which is what we call the "decisive terrain".
• And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus.