When will the Russia-Ukraine war end?

This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland. Ukraine's air defenses have been surprisingly effective against Russia's air force. After Russia first invaded in 2014, the U.S. military stepped up training for the Ukrainian military in western Ukraine.

In fact, the Ukrainian government has failed to implement the agreements signed in Minsk to end the conflict over the Donbass. These required it to offer autonomy to the breakaway regions within a new Ukrainian constitutional settlement, recognising its diversity. It has taken no steps to act on this signed commitment, nor have the western powers pushed it to.

Has there been peace talks between Russia and Ukraine?

And Britain has dragged its heels in assisting Ukrainian refugees, although it needs to be underlined that Ukrainians fleeing the war are at no risk of deportation to Rwanda unlike the victims of other UK-instigated wars – the racism of Johnson’s government is blatant. More and more advanced weaponry is being poured into Ukraine, primarily from the USA and Britain. This seems  calibrated to slow Russia’s advance but not to secure its categorical defeat, which indeed remains unlikely absent direct western military intervention. The authoritarian nature of Putin’s regime is well understood. 15,000 brave Russian anti-war protestors have been arrested during the conflict it is estimated. But it should be emphasised that Ukraine is no democracy either – opposition parties are being banned, trade unions subject to draconian laws and the rights of Russian-speakers violated.

• "This is a factual paper which does not reflect the status of the ongoing negotiations. The note does not outline any specific plan relating to the [long-term EU budget] and Ukraine Facility, nor does it outline any plan relating to Hungary," it said.
• Sanctions on Russia have led to skyrocketing inflation, impacting the price of gas and food, with the price of cereal climbing 11% in the US.
• "That day people went from 'Why are you being so hysterical?' to 'Why weren't you more hysterical?'" says the official.
• It need not do so overtly; it can simply withhold the arms Ukraine needs, as it already does to an extent.

I wrote about this recently, noting that we're seeing air battles daily, but pilots are rarely involved. As a result, Russia essentially stopped flying fighter jets over Ukraine. Numbers are hard to come by, but Russia had an estimated 1,500 fighter jets before the war began and still has the vast majority of them, probably 1,400 or more. A year ago, most everyone expected Russia to dominate the skies with its much larger and more modern air force.

How do expectations affect war strategy and the likelihood of peace?

He uses Russia's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations. But it may not be implausible if the people who have benefited from Mr Putin no longer believe he can defend their interests.

• When President Bill Clinton signed that law in 1996, several countries accused the U.S. of violating their sovereignty, passing their own laws to make the U.S. regulation effectively unenforceable.
• The extension of NATO is the extension of US power and military hegemony.
• Meanwhile, sanctions on Russia would remain; its economic and military strength would continue to erode; and Putin could only watch as his frozen assets abroad are drawn down to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
• China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates.
• The only acceptable outcome was to get Russian forces completely off their territory.
• Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency.

And while we have no right to tell Ukrainians to stop fighting before their country is whole, we also have no right to expect them to keep fighting at any cost. 5) Visit the offices of your House and Senate reps to press for a ceasefire, peace talks, and an end to weapons shipments. Ask your reps to publicly support, in a social media post or letter to constituents, a ceasefire and diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine and to commit to voting no on future weapons shipments. Here is a roadmap from the Friends Committee for National Legislation for conducting a meeting with your congressperson or a staff member. In June 1967 the Israelis delayed accepting a ceasefire for long enough to complete the capture of the Golan Heights from Syria. It was a different situation six years later; by October 1973 Egypt had taken back some of the Sinai Peninsula captured by Israel in 1967.

Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios

There is likely to be a lot more fighting before either side is ready to end the war. Russia and Ukraine have each lost, by one estimate, roughly 100,000 soldiers, killed and wounded, but both still hope to manoeuvre to a more favourable position. Hard-left Democrats recently issued a call, swiftly retracted, for negotiations. Gains by America-first Republicans in the midterm elections on November 8th, although smaller than expected, are a reminder that American politics  might change dramatically after the next presidential election, in two years’ time, and with it policy on Ukraine. The exact provenance of the intelligence remains classified - officials suggest it came from multiple sources.

If Russia continues to suffer “defeats” at this pace, then in another two months the entire south of Ukraine will be in ruins, cities such as Odesa will resemble Mariupol, and thousands upon thousands more Ukrainians will have died. One reason that countries such as Germany have been reluctant to send heavier weapons to the Ukrainians is that Berlin does not want to give Putin any pretext for escalation. Just ask Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I.

• Compared with this time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, politically more than militarily.
• The economic consequences of the war are themselves escalating.
• The military course of this war in 2024 will be determined in Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang more than in Avdiivka, Tokmak, Kramatorsk or any of the devastated battlefields along the frontlines.
• Perhaps more likely is that this develops into a protracted war.
• For those who believe the priority must be to stop the bloodshed, this can be hard to fathom.
• Will Ukraine become a new Finland, forced to cede land to its invaders and to remain neutral for decades?

He is willing to see the suffering in Ukraine prolonged for British imperial interests. In reality, it is the only position likely to bring the war to an end in the foreseeable future, but that is not what Biden and Johnson want. A former Ukrainian Prime Minister said recently that there would be peace when the US decides, and so far, in alliance with the British government, it is blocking any suggestion of substantive talks.

Although it is not known when the conflict will end, Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovich, said the end would depend on Kremlin resources. The world was united in shock when Russia invaded Ukraine, with prominent members of the international community calling for an end to the conflict. Over three million Ukrainians have fled the country since the Russian invasion of Ukraine early on Thursday, February 24, 2022, creating Europe's largest refugee crisis since the Second World War.

They showed themselves a lot more competent than the Israelis had thought after 1967. So, you have this weird case where militarily Egypt lost, and still, the Egyptians got a better deal in the end, which was clearly not a military outcome. Although it is often claimed that all wars end with negotiations, that is not true, unless one calls a formal surrender ceremony a negotiation. Looking back at  https://euronewstop.co.uk/where-is-ukraine-air-force.html , a complex picture of the relationship between fighting and bargaining emerges. Would the West accept Luhansk along the provincial administrative borders (which is not the same as the current line of control, which is currently roughly half of the of the provinces)?