What history shows: How will the war in Ukraine end? Russia-Ukraine war

Russia is keeping those fighter jets grounded for now and is attacking with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. But Ukraine's air defenses were surprisingly effective, shooting down many Russian fighter jets and helicopters in the first couple months of the war. From the very beginning of the war, President Putin has drawn parallels between the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II and the current military campaign against supposed "neo-Nazis" in Ukraine. That hasn't let up, if only because it's a powerful emotional and recruitment tool.

• "[Putin] can't stop, he can't go back," the Centre for Strategic and International Studies' senior advisor and retired Marine colonel Mark Cancian said.
• This includes overwhelming domestic support for joining NATO and the European Union, despite both blocs expressing hesitation to Ukraine's membership for decades preceding the war.
• Pressure would then grow on Kyiv to negotiate – not necessarily from the west, but perhaps led by China.
• Putin illegally annexed four territories from Ukraine in September and now presents Ukraine's efforts — backed by the West — to take back its own territory as a fascist attack on the Russian homeland.
• Ukraine's air defenses have been surprisingly effective against Russia's air force.

There were other commanders clearly unhappy with the higher conduct of the war. If Putin now feels more confident it is because he weathered that particular storm. But it leaves a lingering “what if” question about the effect on the Russian system had there been more Ukrainian success or for  that matter if the next mutineer has a clearer idea of what he is trying to achieve. Although for a while Prigozhin carried on with his affairs in Russia as if nothing untoward had happened, and even at one point met with his old chum Putin again, it was hard to believe that he would survive such a challenge and so it proved. Faced with the collapse of his business model Prigozhin mutinied, challenging directly Putin’s whole rationale for the war by pointing out the lack of an extraordinary Ukrainian threat to the Donbas enclaves in February 2022, before marching to the Southern Command HQ at Rostov.

Making weapons

The war in Ukraine conjures up a strong sense of historical déjà vu. Though recorded in 21st-century fashion through up-close-and-personal shots from mobile phone cameras and high-definition drone footage, the images being captured – of artillery duels and trench warfare – have a distinctly last-century feel to them. "My aim is to change Russia. I may not be president on 17 March but I should have the best result." "He practically destroyed the key institutions of the modern state of Russia. My job will be to restore these institutions," said Mr Nadezhdin. Opposition leader Alexey Navalny, once seen as a major threat to the president's authority, has been in jail since 2021. He has won several presidential elections comfortably, but in recent years no serious opposition has been allowed.

A similar situation emerged after the fighting in Ukraine in 2014, with the unresolved conflict featuring a form of continued Russian occupation for many years. If there was no clear successor, Mr Putin's departure could spur on a brutal power struggle among pro-war, right-wing nationalists, authoritarian conservatives and a murky anti-war movement. Mr Putin's exit would not end the war in Ukraine because the Russian leader would likely be replaced by another pro-war nationalist, Professor Clarke said. While the invasion of Ukraine was started and waged by Mr Putin, Alexei Navalny says the real war party is the entire elite and the system of power itself, which is an "endlessly self-reproducing Russian authoritarianism of the imperial kind". In the meantime, the costs of the war would continue to weigh heavily on Russia, possibly weakening Mr Putin's internal support.

When will the war in Ukraine end? Experts offer their predictions.

Perhaps this remains a situation in which absence of evidence is not the same as evidence of absence. The lack of political noise in Moscow does not mean that there is no unease or dissent among the elite. Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region.

• Vlada Chernykh, Ajuna Morozova and Alina Voronchikhina decided to join the volunteer Khartia Battalion, fighting for their city and their country.
• In response to questions about the report — and specifically if Putin would be willing to give up his demands over Ukraine's neutrality and NATO, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said it was "a wrong report."
• Meanwhile, Ukraine had to pretty much start from scratch, establishing its own treaties and erecting embassies for the first time without approval from Moscow.

Unlike in the case of Serbia, experts do not foresee a scenario in which the US-led Western alliance would actively attack Russia. Still, Western arms — even though supplied in an incremental, cautious manner — in Ukraine have similarly been key to halting Russian advances. In theory, that gives the West influence over the direction of the war. The West could — as Ukraine has sought — supply even more sophisticated weapons, faster, in the hope of convincing Russia that it cannot win. Despite Ukraine’s gains against Russia, experts believe a frozen conflict or painful truce is most likely.

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“I am fully convinced that the end of the war is not imminent,” he added, pointing to “one crucial factor”” Russia, he said, has “the political-strategic and operational-tactical initiative, while Ukraine and the Western alliance react”. Thousands of troops have died, billions of dollars in military hardware wasted and entire cities subjected to relentless bombardment – and more than four months on, Russia’s fierce military campaign in Ukraine continues unabated. The worry is that even this is overly optimistic, although it is the strategy that western leader appears to be selling to their publics. “There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraine’s early successes in counterattacking last year,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank.

This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland. Ukraine's air defenses have been surprisingly effective against Russia's air force. The United States, as Ukraine’s most important military supporter, remains  the center of gravity when it comes to an eventual outcome for the conflict.  https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-long-will-ukraine-last.html  has so far been largely united in their support for Kyiv.

How long the fighting will last and the form it takes depends on the extent and type of the problem. Research suggests that the path to war resembles a bargaining game, where countries compete over issues like territory and resources to patriotism or the style of governance. Rather than going to war, which is very costly, competing states prefer to settle these disagreements peacefully. Ideally, the two sides do this based upon their relative probabilities of winning a hypothetical war.

• The Russian leader's future may depend on the country's powerful security forces, such as those led by Yevgeny Prigozhin or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.
• "There is always a risk of nuclear escalation but I do think both sides are being cautious," Partlett says.
• Prepare for the possibility of a long, shape-shifting conflict, perhaps lasting years, even a decade or more.

In the fall, Azerbaijani forces defeated Armenian troops and recaptured the disputed region of Nagorno Karabakh, three decades after Baku had suffered a military defeat to Armenia. But as GOP lawmakers fight for immigration reform, particularly on the U.S. southern border, ahead of financial support for Ukraine, "it would not be unreasonable to expect Biden to, at the very least, attempt to extend the conflict into 2025." "Russia's goals are not confined to holding the occupied territories—they want to see a compliant political regime installed in Kyiv, and they still believe this is possible. At the very least, Putin is going to wait until the November 2024 election, to see if Donald Trump returns."

• Then, having encountered minimal opposition and a few cheers, he carried on towards Moscow.
• Only liberalizers who withdrew forces from Ukraine might relieve the pressure.
• Ukrainians troops have also broken through Russian defenses on the Dnipro River.
• In a two-hour address on Tuesday night, Vladimir Putin gave no indication the war would end any time soon, promising to continue Russia's offensive against its neighbour "step by step".