What does the Ukraine war mean for the UK? How Russia invasion and Putin sanctions can affect life in UK

Russian military vehicles are reported to have breached Ukraine's border in a number of places, in the north, south and east, including from Belarus.  https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-did-liz-truss-have-to-say-about-ukraine.html  said President Vladimir Putin had launched a "vast invasion by land, by sea and by air" without provocation. The UK "cannot and will not just look away" at Russia's "hideous and barbaric" attack on Ukraine, Boris Johnson has said. The UK is not protected from rising prices purely because it relies less on Russian gas.

Mr Putin has accused the West of ignoring Russia's demands to prevent Ukraine from joining the western Nato military alliance and offer Moscow security guarantees. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen accused Mr Putin of "bringing war back to Europe" and warned a raft of "massive" sanctions would be proposed later aimed at Russia's economic base and its  "capacity to modernise". The UK is providing additional military support to eastern Nato member states and will support Ukrainians in their defence of their homeland, he added. On Wednesday, the  UK announced a package of sanctions against Russia as part of a co-ordinated Western response to the crisis. Events in Ukraine have also seen global share prices fall and the price of gold rise - as investors worry about the possible impact of the conflict. He said the UK and its allies will launch a "massive package" of sanctions - commercial and financial penalties - to "hobble" Russia's economy.

US planning to station nuclear weapons in UK amid threat from Russia – report

Before Sanders gave his speech, the MoD issued a clarification, saying it had no plans to advocate a return to national service. Israel’s assault on Gaza continues; hostilities with Iran-aligned Hezbollah in Lebanon increase; and the US and the UK launched bombing raids on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen to halt raids on shipping in the Red Sea. Turkey’s parliament ratified Sweden’s Nato membership on Tuesday after more than a year of delays that upset western efforts to show resolve over Russia’s war in Ukraine. Turkey will get 40 new F-16s and upgrades to 79 of the jets in its existing fleet, the state department said in a news release. They engaged Ukrainian troops in 98 combat engagements, and carried out four air strikes and 78 shellings with reactive bullets. A Russian team shot and killed a brother and sister from the Khotin community of the Sumy oblast this morning, the regional military administration said.

• Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says Nato will “continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all allies”.
• Here’s a breakdown of how tensions in eastern Europe are likely to impact Britain, and why.
• French President Emmanuel Macron has said the Russian attack on Ukraine is a "turning point" in European history.
• The prospect of further UK sanctions against Russia comes a day after the prime minister announced that five Russian banks had had their assets frozen and three Russian billionaires would have travel bans imposed.
• The only airlines still flying from the UK, Wizz Air and Ryanair, have suspended all flights to the country.

If, contrary to what is reflected in futures prices, energy prices stay at current levels beyond the middle of next year, the UK would face a larger and more persistent increase in the price level and fall in real household incomes. Permanently higher energy prices could deliver an adverse supply shock that reduced potential output in the medium term, which in turn would damage the structural fiscal position. In addition to capturing these impacts on the UK economy forecast, there is a smaller, though significant, impact on the fiscal forecast from lower UK equity prices, which have fallen in the wake of the Russian invasion.

Potential energy disruption

This was in return for Ukraine giving up its massive arsenal of nuclear weapons, a legacy of its membership of the Soviet Union. After 2,000 anti-tank weapons were delivered last week and 30 British troops arrived to teach Ukrainian forces how to use them, the phrase "God Save the Queen" began trending on Twitter in Ukraine. Some bars and restaurants in Kyiv were offering free drinks to anyone who had a UK passport. One Whitehall source told the Times that the training of Ukrainian civilians on UK soil could act as a rehearsal for rapid Army expansion.

The UK’s total energy demand fell by 22 per cent between 2000 and 2019, reflecting both a shift away from more energy-intensive industries and improvements in economy-wide energy efficiency. Despite the share of renewable energy increasing 11-fold over this period, the share of gas and oil in energy consumption has remained reasonably stable at 73 per cent owing to declining coal and nuclear power (Chart B, top-right panel). This febrile mood has prompted growing warnings that Europe could find itself involved in a war in Russia, even though at present Russia is embroiled in Ukraine. But Russia is a major producer in global energy markets, accounting for 17 per cent of gas and 12 per cent of oil production globally in 2019 (Chart B, bottom-right panel).

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Ukrainian counter-attacks were holding Russians back from taking full control of Avdiivka, the UK Ministry of Defence said in its latest intelligence report. Russian forces have suffered heavy personnel and armoured vehicle losses, frequently caused by Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle munitions. The ‘global’ in Britain was reflected in an ambition to more deeply engage in the Indo-Pacific, to adapt to China’s growing power and climate and global health objectives. Another risk is that Sunak’s can-kicking over budgets postpones the serious investment needed in military supplies.

• The intensity, regularity and indiscriminate nature of Russia’s attacks may violate international humanitarian law, is extremely concerning and must stop.
• “The 48th Security Forces Squadron upcoming nuclear mission is required to operate under ballistic protection,” it said.
• The UK does not have significant direct trade links with either Russia or Ukraine, so our economy’s most direct exposure to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is via its impact on the global price of energy.
• The government is likely to face further pressure on its tentative support for onshore wind and solar.

Conscription requires young men and women to serve for a limited time in uniform. It means that some of the population will have had some military training - and can then be assigned to reserve units should war break out. Unfortunately, the attacks on Tuesday morning were just the latest of a series of acts of wanton destruction by Russia in Ukraine since we last gathered for a Permanent Council in December.

Meanwhile, Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. Peter Ricketts, the UK’s former national security adviser, joined us to discuss the Ukraine crisis. The question remains as to why the Foreign Office had a comparatively low number of staff focused on the region prior to Russia’s invasion – and the extent to which that hindered the UK’s response. A year after Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, five IfG experts examine the impact of the war on the UK. She has advised Estonians to stay calm and says there is no threat currently on Estonian borders. Several European countries bordering Ukraine are already preparing for the arrival of refugees fleeing the Russian invasion.

• Moscow’s ambassador to London previously warned that the UK would be hit with “immediate retaliation” if it tried to sanction Russia.
• Moscow and Kyiv traded fresh accusations over the plane that Russia says Ukraine’s forces shot down near the rivals’ border, killing 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war.
• Russian forces launched a major military assault on Ukraine on Thursday morning, with reports of missile strikes and explosions near major cities.
• Downing Street has ruled out any move towards conscription, saying the army service will remain voluntary.
• In this box, we considered where the UK gets its energy from and the channels through which higher energy prices raise inflation.