What does the Russian invasion of Ukraine mean for the UK?

Meanwhile Kaja Kallas, the Prime Minister of Estonia - which borders Russia - has told BBC News "we're gonna help Ukraine with all the means that we can" including political support and by sending weapons. The UK government is providing a range of economic, humanitarian and defensive military assistance to Ukraine, and is imposing additional sanctions on Russia and Belarus. Prior to Russia's invasion, the Foreign Office had seen a decline in its Russia expertise - despite the government having described the country as "the most acute threat to our security" in the Integrated Review. The muted response to Russia’s invasion of the Crimea in 2014 had already shown that, as a former UK ambassador to Moscow and Washington put it, “there was a problem in the Foreign Office; the old Cold War cadre of people just wasn’t there”. Justin Bronk, an air war specialist from the defence think tank Rusi, told the BBC that, if confirmed, the loss of an A-50 would be a "highly operationally significant and embarrassing loss" for Russia's air force. Analysts have warned that war could impact the production of grains and even double global wheat prices.

• Of course, for all the lessons that planners can learn from Ukraine, they will only be valuable if Russia continues to act in a similar way, should it ever become embroiled in a conflict with the West.
• NATO and the Ministry of Defence will be studying the battlefields of Ukraine closely to work out what it would mean if British forces ever became involved in a fight with the Russians.
• Hungary has signalled it is ready to compromise on EU funding for Ukraine - after Brussels reportedly prepared to sabotage its economy if it did not comply.
• A briefing from the UK's Ministry of Defence on 23 February said that Russia "likely" had six operational A-50s in service.

For decades the European Union has heavily relied on Russia's oil and gas, generating money and cash for Russia. But Russia is also reliant on revenues from fossil fuel sales, which make up around two fifths of government revenue. He announced plans to send army to defend its borders in response to "possible disturbances and provocations due to large military forces massed in Russia and Belarus".

Engaging with government

Mr Johnson promised to hit Russia with a “massive” package of sanctions designed to “hobble” the economy in Moscow. This is because Nato uses a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. If Ukraine was part of Nato, the military alliance which is made up of 30 member states, including the US and UK, every Nato nation would have to launch an armed attack against Russia. "This renewed attack is a grave violation of international law, including the UN Charter," Nato said. But we now see more clearly that, in a crisis, for the foreseeable future UK interests are aligned with the US and Europe, especially if China aligns itself more with Russia. The revival of NATO’s purpose and a unified western response have been a necessary if painful reminder of where UK interests truly lie.

So, as a net energy importer with a high dependence on gas and oil, higher global energy prices will still weigh heavily on the UK economy. From significant rises in petrol and gas prices to the potential for cyberattacks and a financial hit on London’s markets from western sanctions, people in the UK will feel the cost of the conflict. Mr Johnson said the UK and its allies would agree a "massive package of economic sanctions" in a bid to "hobble" the Russian economy, warning that the West would need to cease its dependence on Russian oil and gas.

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The prospect of further UK sanctions against Russia comes a day after the prime minister announced that five Russian banks had had their assets frozen and three Russian billionaires would have travel bans imposed. Mr Johnson was among leaders of the G7 group of wealthy nations who met to discuss the situation. Earlier, the prime minister said on Twitter that the invasion was a "catastrophe for our continent". He said the UK and allies will launch a "massive package" of sanctions to "hobble" Russia's economy. The price of British gas for next-day delivery shot up by 40 per cent, to £280 per therm. Opposition leaders including Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer criticised the initial package of sanctions for being too soft.

Hungary and Slovakia both say they are ready to welcome refugees and are sending extra troops to manage the likely influx at additional crossings set up on their borders with Ukraine. The defence alliance, which counts the UK, US and many European countries as members, has also condemned Belarus for "enabling" the attack. But that troops being sent to Europe "would defend Nato allies" - which includes countries like Poland who share a border with Ukraine.

Who would be exempt from conscription if we went to war with Russia?

Before the war, it was expected that one of the first lines of attack from Russia in any conflict would be a major cyber assault, both on Russia's opposing combatant, and potentially on its allies. So far, that has yet to happen, with  https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-australia-saying-about-ukraine.html  reported cyber attacks linked to Russia in the last few months. But Air Vice Marshal Bell, who previously headed a strategic combat review for the RAF, says the reasons for this are not clear. Assuming both sides weren't annihilated by nuclear weapons, they assumed a Soviet invasion would lead to a war in western Europe, and trained and equipped UK forces would need to counter that threat.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the run-up to our March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook represented a significant adverse shock, primarily via a sharp rise in gas and oil prices. In this box, we considered where the UK gets its energy from and the channels through which higher energy prices raise inflation. We then set out how the economic shock from the invasion had been reflected in our forecast as well as several potential channels through which the invasion could affect the UK economy that our forecast did not explicitly capture. A large diversion of citizens to military duty would leave gaps in the workforce to be filled, be it guarding food  warehouses or building trenches and bomb shelters. Retired members of essential professions – doctors, nurses, morticians, police – would be urged back into service.

• As cars queued on Ukraine's border with Moldova, the country's pro-EU president, Maia Sandu said she was declaring a state of emergency and was prepared to give help to tens of thousands of Ukrainians.
• Frank Gardner, the BBC's security correspondent, said the apparent development was a "small bit of good news for Ukraine amid an awful lot of bad news".
• However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine.
• Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been highly critical of the EU's financial and military aid for Ukraine and has maintained close ties with Russia.

A little earlier, we told you about a report in the Financial Times that the EU was proposing to sabotage Hungary's economy if Budapest blocks further aid for Ukraine this week. Meanwhile, Indian thinktank Observer Research Foundation's Russia expert, Nandan Unnikrishnan, said India was unlikely to sign "any  major military deal" with Russia because it would cross a red line with the US. "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak.

• Hungary previously said it would block further financial aid to Ukraine, but this morning suggested it was ready to compromise after the EU reportedly drew up plans to hit Budapest's economy.
• While analysts say a direct conflict between NATO and Russia is unlikely, it is possible - particularly in the Baltic states, or Finland.
• As a result, recent military planners assumed the amount of ammunition required and preparation needed would be limited.
• All the expeditionary wars involved victories that came, generally, in a matter of weeks, sometimes days.
• That, though, is partly because Ukraine had already learnt from previous Russian cyberattacks over the past decade.

If Vladimir Putin decided to cut off supplies of these metals in retaliation to sanctions, existing supply problems could worsen, with car firms having to find alternative sources. But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. If we took casualties at the rate the Ukrainians are taking them, the NHS would immediately be overwhelmed, and for years we’ve missed recruitment targets for the Armed Forces. “Covid showed our ugly side, with people getting upset when all they were being asked to do was sit on the sofa at home,” said the former TA soldier. The logistics of training a “Citizen Army” are also formidable, according to one former Territorial Army (TA) soldier.

• The Russian president has intensified a crackdown on opposition since the start of his invasion of Ukraine, and this has ramped up further as the elections have approached.
• French President Emmanuel Macron has said the Russian attack on Ukraine is a "turning point" in European history.
• Putin already sent in “peacekeeping troops” to two separatist regions of Ukraine on Monday – prompting the West to issue a string of sanctions against Russia – but went even further early Thursday morning when he declared war on Ukraine.
• The UK stands with Ukraine, its democratically-elected government and its brave people at this awful time.

But beyond the Johnsonian rhetoric the 2021 document was quite clear-sighted about UK interests. It pledged to support an “open and resilient international order” but warned that “to be open we must also be secure” and of increasing competition between states and a fragmented international order. To that end the review already committed to exceeding NATO spending commitments, and the UK playing its part in multilateral governance and collective security in a more hard-nosed way.