Ukraine war: Countdown has begun to end of Putin, say Kyiv officials

Inflation in the Eurozone was 8.1 percent in May, the highest since 1997, and energy prices exploded. Within days of the Russian invasion, European natural gas prices had jumped nearly 70 percent, while oil hit $105 a barrel, an eight-year high. The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development anticipates that the French, German, and Italian economies (the three largest in Europe) will contract for the rest of this year, with only France’s registering an anemic 0.2 percent growth in the fourth quarter. No one can know for sure whether Europe and the United States are headed for a recession, but many economists and business leaders consider it likely. They’ve just begun to feel the economic blowback from the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia, pain that will only increase.

• Unlike in the case of Serbia, experts do not foresee a scenario in which the US-led Western alliance would actively attack Russia.
• The winter will be over and he can see what territory, if any, has been taken.
• Instead Commander-in-Chief Valery Gerasimov took over direct responsibility for the Russian campaign.
• Ukraine is a democratic country aggressively pursuing European integration.

We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This week, Mr Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. But Ukraine joining NATO could itself be how the war ends, consistent with Biden’s current policy — and at a time and on terms set by Ukraine and its allies, not by Russia. Gaining security within NATO as a strong, pluralistic, democratic state would absolutely count as a victory for Ukraine — arguably as big as quickly regaining Crimea.

Germany’s new far-left party calls for an end to the Ukraine war

From the very beginning of the war, President Putin has drawn parallels between the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World  War II and the current military campaign against supposed "neo-Nazis" in Ukraine. That hasn't let up, if only because it's a powerful emotional and recruitment tool. Twenty million Soviets — Russians, Ukrainians and others — died fighting Hitler's armies.

• The war has already become very costly for the oligarchs and these costs will only increase with time.
• In addition to being willing to accept huge losses, the Russians have shown themselves to be adept at defensive operations and have improved their use of drones and electronic warfare capabilities.
• There have been a number of proposals in circulation, from China’s last February and those later from the BRICS countries.
• Army captain who last year became a special adviser to Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander of the Ukrainian military.

It's perhaps the only thing more complicated than sanctions enforcement, and this question touches on both. The U.S. is also training about 100 Ukrainians on the Patriot anti-missile system in Oklahoma. The Western countries have gone from training the Ukrainians on specific systems to training larger units on how to carry out coordinated attacks. Ukrainian replacement troops go through combat training on Feb. 24 in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Win, lose, stalemate or a shock: how might the Ukraine war end?

"A long-term negotiated settlement also seems highly unlikely. Having spent so much blood, treasure, and prestige on this war, Putin politically cannot afford anything less than a decisive victory," said Gregory Vitarbo, professor of history at Meredith College, Raleigh, North Carolina. "I believe that the war may stretch well into 2025 and the international support for both sides would prolong the war as neither Ukraine nor Russia can achieve major breakthroughs and declare victory," Gok told Newsweek. Expediting its membership would be a heavy lift for the EU and such an aid package would be costly to the Europeans and Americans, so they’d have to decide how much they were willing to offer to end Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II.

But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations. But it may not be implausible if the people who have benefited from Mr Putin no longer believe he can defend their interests. And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control.

Conversely, that roughly tracks with the results of an Ipsos poll from January, which found about 7 in 10 people in Western countries think they should "avoid getting involved militarily" in Ukraine, while also "supporting sovereign countries when they are attacked by other countries." In response, companies on both sides of the Atlantic announced plans to restart production lines for artillery shells and other weapons considered somewhat arcane until recently. The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea. The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington told Defense News that Ukraine would not strike Russian territory with longer-range weapons pledged by the United States. Blumenthal has joined other lawmakers — particularly pro-Ukraine Republicans — in pushing President Joe Biden to give Zelenskyy most of the weapons he requested, including long-range ATACMS missiles and F-16 fighter aircraft.

• And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus.
• The sources reportedly said that Putin could be willing to end his demands over Ukraine's neutrality and, eventually, his opposition to the country joining NATO.
• But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict.
• Says more than 8 million Ukrainians fled to Europe since the start of the invasion.
• “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia — never,” President Joe Biden said in a speech in Poland this year, and rightly so.

And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus. But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders? President Putin could seek to regain more parts of Russia's former empire by sending troops into ex-Soviet republics like Moldova  and Georgia, that are not part of Nato.  https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-would-happen-if-russia-launched-a-nuke-in-ukraine.html  could declare Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces are an act of aggression that warrant retaliation.