Ukraine-Russia war latest: Hungary signals 'major shift' in Ukraine funding stance; Russia claims it has taken control of Kharkiv village

Graham said Putin's recent tendency towards "megalomania" had been "exacerbated" by him being "in extreme isolation." He also pointed to geopolitical reasons why Putin didn't launch a full invasion sooner. One was the arrival of Zelenskyy, who came to power in 2019 after a career as a comedian and actor.

• The logistics of training a “Citizen Army” are also formidable, according to one former Territorial Army (TA) soldier.
• He said the UK and its allies will launch a "massive package" of sanctions - commercial and financial penalties - to "hobble" Russia's economy.
• They know it, they engage with us about it all the time, we have an alliance in which we’re at the epicenter,” said Max Bergmann of the Center for American Progress.
• Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, before declaring itself an independent country, cementing the move in a referendum days before the USSR collapsed in December 1991.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry said last week that its main goal in 2024 is to boost its domestic defense industry in the face of uncertain future supplies from its Western allies.  It has also changed conscription laws, foreseeing the need to bolster its forces, which are dwarfed in size by Russia's but are more highly trained and equipped. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that the military had asked for up to 500,000 additional conscripts but said he needed to hear "more arguments" to support the sensitive and costly proposal.

Experts predict what happens next in Ukraine war - and explain why Putin must claim a victory soon

He says Europe is rich enough to do so if it has the political will, pointing to a recent report from the Estonian Ministry of Defence suggesting that committing 0.25% of GDP annually towards Ukraine would provide "more than sufficient resources". The official added that budget talks are "ongoing" and have "always been based on finding a compromise" acceptable to all member states. This is what happened in December to opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who lost contact with his family and lawyers for nearly three weeks while he was moved to a penal colony in the Arctic. The wife of Russian dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza has said he has been taken from the Siberian penal colony where he had been imprisoned since September and his whereabouts are now unknown. "They understand the wider strategic point, which is that this is a confrontation between the West and Russia and at stake is not just the future territorial integrity of Ukraine but the security construct for Europe and the West with Russia," he noted. That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West.

If law and order really began to break down, security forces could be authorised to use lethal force against looters; neighbourhood vigilante groups might spring up. The Covid lockdown, which saw fights breaking out in queues at supermarkets and garages, was a glimpse  of how trouble can spark during times of nationwide panic. There would also be concerns about looting, especially if food shortages started to bite.

What happens if Russia invades?

Public opinion in Ukraine has also strongly swayed to support for ascension into Western bodies like the EU and NATO. That may have left Russia feeling as though it has exhausted all of its political and diplomatic tools to bring Ukraine back into the fold. “Moscow security elites feel that they have to act now because if they don’t, military cooperation between NATO and Ukraine will become even more intense and even more sophisticated,” Sarah Pagung, of the German Council on Foreign Relations, said. What Russia wants is for Zelensky to implement the 2014 and ’15 Minsk agreements, deals that would bring the pro-Russian regions back into Ukraine but would amount to, as one expert said, a “Trojan horse” for Moscow to wield influence and control. No Ukrainian president could accept those terms, and so Zelensky, under continued Russian pressure, has turned to the West for help, talking openly about wanting to join NATO.

• Under Nato's Article 5 the entire western military alliance is obliged to come to the defence of any member state that comes under attack.
• As the war approaches its second anniversary, severe weapons shortages and worrying signs of waning Western support are undermining Ukraine’s war effort.
• "From here in the Black Sea region, all the way to the Baltic, allies are stepping up to reinforce NATO's presence at this critical time," NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said from Constanta.
• Artem, 31, was a member of Ukraine’s Azov regiment and was taken prisoner at the end of the siege of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol last May.
• The old Cold War maxim of "MAD" - Mutually Assured Destruction - still applies.
• He also pointed to geopolitical reasons why Putin didn't launch a full invasion sooner.

But it boosts the strength of the professional armed forces, which is often relatively small. There is  https://euronewstop.co.uk/which-countries-support-russia-against-ukraine.html  in the upper echelons of the British military that many politicians and most of the public have not grasped the threat they see. It is the duty of the military to analyse that threat, and they still might be proved wrong. But European nations closer to Russian borders appear to be taking it more seriously.

Simple guide to Ukraine crisis in maps

Putin claimed in his end-of year news conference that 617,000 troops were currently active in Ukraine. In the meantime, the ISW noted in an analysis, "Ukrainian forces establish and consolidate defensive positions to conserve manpower and resources for future offensive efforts." They predict intense fighting is likely to continue into the next year but say Kyiv's forces are unlikely to launch any more counteroffensives. Russia, meanwhile, is likely to focus on consolidating the territory it has already seized, particularly in eastern Ukraine. Mr Putin announces a “special military operation" by Russian troops is underway in Ukraine. Ukraine says it is a "full-scale invasion”. The Ukrainian armed forces said they had shot down five Russian planes and a helicopter - which Russia denies - and inflicted casualties on invading troops.

• The overall effect means Finland can muster one of Europe's largest armies.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that the military had asked for up to 500,000 additional conscripts but said he needed to hear "more arguments" to support the sensitive and costly proposal.
• It is estimated the UK has spent £2.3bn on military assistance, making the country the second biggest military donor behind the US.
• "Unfortunately, almost nine hours of talks have ended without any significant results," Russian deputy chief of staff Dmitry Kozak said.

He is once again a powerful politician – Vladimir Putin’s chosen ruler of the occupied territory that lies across the river from Kherson. From there, shells, bombs and mortars rain down ceaselessly on the city he used to run. They say NATO's principles of freedom and democracy are under threat and NATO has acted in non-member countries before, like Libya and Kosovo. Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeated that over the weekend, saying Ukraine is not a part of NATO and therefore not entitled to NATO's one for all, all for one protection. He fears a people power revolution like Ukraine's and the emergence of a more prosperous democracy and how that might encourage Russians to want the same.

Eastern European countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland - once part of Moscow's orbit in Soviet times - are all now Nato members. In fact, when the US and Britain watched in dismay as Russia built up a force capable of invading Ukraine, they swiftly pulled out their small number of military trainers and advisers. As bad as the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is right now, it does not currently involve a direct military confrontation between Nato and Russia. Because let's face it, that is what a lot of people are understandably asking and thinking in the light of the Kremlin's recent actions over Ukraine - actions and statements that have triggered a deluge of denouncements and sanctions from the West. "The United States maintains by far the world's most powerful nuclear stockpile, but with the US out of the mix, the French and British, with their much smaller arsenals, would be Europe’s only nuclear deterrent," Mr OBrien says.

Ukraine will probably try to exploit the success it has had in re-establishing its control over the western Black Sea and its vital trade corridor to the Bosphorus. “We have become so comfortable here in Britain that it’s hard to imagine young people fighting, and when I went to Afghanistan a decade ago, I didn’t think the youngsters of would be up to much,” he said. While Covid was a useful exercise in Armageddon planning, 21st-century Britain is arguably less ready for actual warfare than it was even 30 years ago. At the end of the Cold War, most of the 100-strong network of nuclear bunkers were closed, along with around 1,500 underground posts for the Royal Observer Corps, a 10,000-strong volunteer force.

• After an uneasy peace with Ukraine, Moscow has sent forces into the Baltics, clashing with British troops based there to protect Nato’s eastern flank.
• But a Ukrainian victory is dependent on numerous key factors, including how long the West is prepared to provide support and whether troops can make enough gains before winter sets in.
• "Even cutting every possible corner, training new people up will take a minimum of four or five months.
• Russia denies it is preparing for an invasion and accuses Nato of upping its activity in the region.