The consequences of Russias invasion of Ukraine for international security NATO and beyond

While Canada has been one of the most consistent and vocal supporters of Ukraine's bid to join NATO,  it probably couldn't influence Russia's actions on its own. By joining NATO, Ukraine could obtain a much greater degree of security. Each of NATO's 30 members would be obliged to defend Ukraine if it were attacked.  https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-did-boris-johnson-travel-to-ukraine.html , who took office in 2019, has tried to strengthen his country's ties to the West. He has lobbied aggressively for NATO to expedite Ukraine's request for membership.

Such a move is well within Russia's naval capabilities, and it could bring Ukraine's economy to its knees, the country's former defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk warned in June. It's still possible Russia could pull back its troops, although Moscow's tough language suggests otherwise. "You have a Ukrainian land army that has gotten much better, much more capable," since 2014, said Breedlove, who is now at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank. Basic food supplies in African and Asian countries that depend on Ukraine, the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter in 2020, will be hit. Additional, defensive Nato deployments on Russia’s borders could increase the risk of Europe-wide conflagration. The primary aim would be the rapid capitulation of Ukraine’s government in Kyiv and the “neutralisation” of its elected leaders.

With hopes of victory fading, Ukraine's war against Russia could get even harder in 2024

The roots of Russia's invasion of Ukraine go back decades and run deep. The current conflict is more than one country fighting to take over another; it is — in the words of one U.S. official — a shift in "the world order."Here are some helpful stories to make sense of it all. But Ukraine's air defenses were surprisingly effective, shooting down many Russian fighter jets and helicopters in the first couple months of the war. That said, there wasn't much of a political will for third countries to sanction Cuba at the time.

Russia said it has destroyed more than 70 military targets in Ukraine. But later on Thursday President Zelensky said Ukraine had suffered losses and a lot of aircraft and armoured vehicles had been destroyed. And he added that any intervention from outside powers to resist the Russian attack would be met with an "instant" and devastating response. RAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous.

Analysis: what happens if Russia invades?

A year ago, Ukraine's international military support was solid with NATO pledging to support Kyiv for "as long as it takes" as it defended itself against Russia's invasion launched in February 2022. Bremmer said Russia may therefore resort to more indirect attacks including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and even the possible sanctioning of terrorism in and against NATO countries. In this scenario, the strategists noted that a Ukrainian insurgency could force "a significant, sustained human and financial toll on Russia" as it would be required to devote far more of its resources over a much longer period of time than it had anticipated. In the meantime, NATO countries "would likely provide covert but very robust defensive assistance to the Ukrainian resistance."

• The majority of European countries turned to the tried and tested protective security umbrella of NATO, backed by American military capabilities.
• To bolster his depleted forces President Putin announced Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two, although it was partial and limited to some 300,000 reservists.
• There are many questions over who could lead a loyalist regime in Ukraine, one that could resemble that of Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko.
• British ministers predict a long-running “quagmire”, with Russia suffering significant casualties.
• After more than four months of fighting, it is Russia that is experiencing manpower shortages.

The US and UK have not ruled out arming resistance fighters, as during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. British ministers predict a long-running “quagmire”, with Russia suffering significant casualties. Analysts say Russia could opt for a more limited, less risky offensive to grab extra territory in eastern Ukraine and the Donbas, while asserting the independence of pro-Moscow breakaway republics there, as in Georgia in 2008. It may also try to seize the major ports of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov and Odessa on the Black Sea, and create a “land bridge” to Crimea.

The war that erupted in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has already left 14,000 dead and an estimated 1.4 million displaced. The intelligence official described the build-up as a "slow drip" and a "slow ratcheting up of pressure". With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol. Ukraine will do all it can to keep pressure on the Russians there to make it untenable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, the handful of air force bases  there and their logistics base at Dzankoy. Russia lacks a decisive, breakthrough capability to overrun Ukraine and will do what it can to hold on to what it currently occupies, using the time to strengthen its defences while it hopes for the West to lose the will to continue supporting Ukraine.

• Once Putin rolled his tanks in, pro-Russian sentiment largely vanished.
• The myth of the invincible Russian military machine has evaporated in the space of a few weeks.
• With or without a nuclear threat dimension, Russia’s neighbours already have valid reasons to fear the Russian predator.
• Ukrainian pilots are beginning their training on the jets now but it could be a number of months before they're deployed in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that the military had asked for up to 500,000 additional conscripts but said he needed to hear "more arguments" to support the sensitive and costly proposal.