Russia invades Ukraine: What will happen now Vladimir Putin has chosen all-out war?

Any full-scale invasion of Ukraine could be over in a matter of a few days. But there is still  https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-many-russian-soldiers-have-died.html  could find itself in a costly and prolonged guerrilla war that, in the long run, may turn victory into defeat. A lot of the stark warnings we are hearing from our own government should be seen in that light. What we might want to worry about more is the impact on energy prices. Your parents are likely to pay even more for gas and electricity because of this crisis.

• The move led to mass protests through the country and he left office in that same year.
• Washington has suggested that force could rise to 175,000 by the end of January.
• Before Western artillery arrived in the east last summer, Kyiv officials said 100 to 200 troops were dying every day.
• President Joe Biden has condemned the attack - much like his response to growing conflict between China and Taiwan - vowing to hold Russia accountable for their actions, alongside leaders from the UK, European Union, United Nations and NATO.
• US leadership has once again proven essential in successfully mobilising international efforts, especially in coordinating military support to Ukraine.

To help Kyiv to counterbalance Russia’s size advantages and scorched earth tactics, Allies should consider more military exercises to show NATO’s readiness and strength. Creative solutions are also quickly needed to undermine the Russian blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, facilitating the export of grain. There is no indication that Canada or its allies would be willing to send soldiers to fight invading Russian forces.

Joe Pike, political correspondent

The course of the conflict in 2023 marked the fact that industrial-age warfare had returned too. Recently, Ukraine's winter offensive seems to have come to a halt. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. Compared with this time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, politically more than militarily. Russia’s president Vladmir Putin offered the opportunity for countries in NATO to come to the table in talks on the issue, adding that he would be willing to make “legal guarantees” if the countries agree. While US and NATO have responded to Russia’s offer, the details of their replies aren’t publicly available.

"Alternatively, as I said, if [Putin] chooses renewed aggression against Ukraine, that's going to have consequences too." Poland, which shares a border with Ukraine and is already home to more than a million Ukrainians, would likely see the most refugees. Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski said his country was preparing for an "influx of refugees" from Ukraine. For now, Sedova said she is more worried about subtler attacks — like influence campaigns that aim to "sow discord between us and our allies in our resolve" to act jointly against Russia. Another way Russia could respond to U.S. sanctions is through cyberattacks and influence campaigns. The U.S. stock market has already been unusually volatile in recent weeks, churning over inflation, moves by the Federal Reserve to curb its stimulus programs and the looming conflict in Ukraine.

Ukraine is fighting back

President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped. While the official said it was hard to say these were all strategically related, it showed that there was an issue on Eastern Europe's eastern flank. But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members such as cyber and hybrid warfare, and even physical attacks.

To bolster his depleted forces President Putin announced Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two, although it was partial and limited to some 300,000 reservists. For years, the Russian president has denied Ukraine its own statehood, writing in a lengthy 2021 essay that "Russians and Ukrainians were one people" dating back to the late 9th Century. He vowed to protect people from eight years of Ukrainian bullying and genocide - a Russian propaganda claim with no foundation in reality. He spoke of preventing Nato from gaining a foothold in Ukraine, then added another objective of ensuring Ukraine's neutral status. After a series of humiliating retreats, his initial invasion plan has clearly failed, but Russia's war is far from over.

U.S. is 'fully prepared' if Russia invades Ukraine, secretary of state says

While Prime  Minister Boris Johnson announced a imminent COBRA meeting, accusing the Russian president of choosing "a path of bloodshed and destruction" by launching the attack on Ukraine. "The UK and our allies will respond decisively," he said in response. Another potential threat could come from anti-war politicians, whom Kremlin propagandists might seek to incite.

• "There's a geopolitical premium, or call it a fear premium, in the price of oil," Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit, told Morning Edition.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who took office in 2019, has tried to strengthen his country's ties to the West.
• Russia’s key demand is that Ukraine and other countries be blocked from joining Nato – a concession the alliance has firmly ruled out.
• Canada has about 200 soldiers stationed in Ukraine to assist the local military.
• "It will be a continent-wide humanitarian disaster with millions of refugees seeking protection in neighbouring European countries," Agnès Callamard, secretary-general of Amnesty International, said last month in statement.

The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. While Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison has called Russia's latest move "unacceptable...unprovoked [and] unwarranted" and confirmed that the breakaway regions of Ukraine will face sanctions. This will impact banks, transport, energy, oil, gas and telecommunications, reports say, along with eight wealthy Russian individuals. When  announcing the military operation, Mr Putin warned other countries that interfering with the invasion would lead to "consequences you have never seen". They also provided support to a Ukrainian rebellion that had broken out in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, an industrial heartland. Even if cyberattacks didn’t wipe out Netflix, wartime Britons would still face a life without luxuries.

As the top UK general recently observed, it is dangerous to assume that the war on Ukraine is a limited conflict. This could be “our 1937 moment“, and everything possible must be done in order to stop territorial expansion by force, thereby averting a war similar to the one that ravaged Europe 80 years ago. Canada and its allies have threatened to impose a series of punishing economic sanctions on Russia if it invades. The United States, which is spearheading efforts to deter Russia, has said the sanctions would go into effect just hours after an invasion. "The Ukrainian armed forces could give Russia a very, very hard time," Stelzenmüller told CBC News. Russian President Vladimir Putin also has called on the U.S. to remove its nuclear weapons from Europe and for Western allied countries to stop rotating their troops through several nations in Eastern Europe.

• The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya.
• The focus of increased assistance might be defensive weapons that can be rapidly absorbed by Ukraine's armed forces.
• International sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 in response to Moscow’s attack on Ukraine continue to have a negative impact on the country’s economy despite Kremlin efforts to claim otherwise.
• But, as the aggression continues, with Russia concentrating its efforts on gaining control of eastern and southern Ukraine via a war of attrition, Western unity is being tested.

Putin has turned Russia into an international pariah and the country will not recover its reputation for a long time. In spite of the totalitarian nature of the Russian political system today, some signs of dissent (even amongst high ranking diplomats) show a growing recognition of these facts. As one astute Russian expert put it, Putin has “amputated Russia’s future”. Russia is bound to be a weaker, less influential actor for the foreseeable future. February 24, 2022, is likely to engrave itself on the history template of the contemporary world.

• President Biden said prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine that the not-yet-operational Nord Stream 2 pipeline would not move ahead in the event of an invasion.
• NATO officials, who represent 30 nations in Europe and North America, have flatly rejected Putin's demands.
• But if Ukraine’s experience is anything to go by, the threat posed by a common enemy could have a unifying effect.
• Much of the fighting appears to be centred around the east of the country.

President Putin warned in December that the war "could be a lengthy process", but then added later that Russia's goal was "not to spin the flywheel of military conflict", but to end it. Europe’s most divisive energy project, Nord Stream 2 bypasses the traditional gas transit nation of Ukraine by running along the bed of the Baltic Sea. Western countries have condemned the threat and are likely to impose sanctions on Moscow this week. And they have made clear that they will not send combat troops to Ukraine.

• His declared goal on 24 February 2022 was to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine and not occupy it by force, days after backing independence for eastern Ukrainian territories occupied by Russian proxy forces since 2014.
• He said countries that were criticizing Russia were showing “utter indifference to the fate of the Donbas people,” just as Kyiv and its Western backers had.
• Even if Russia chooses not to limit exports, supplies could still be affected by the conflict in Ukraine because multiple pipelines run through the country, carrying gas from Russia to Europe.
• On the face of it no one wants this conflict to spread but there is always the law of unintended consequences and mistakes and misunderstandings escalating into an expanded conflict, as has happened in wars in the past.

The top commander of Canada's military said last year that Canadian forces must avoid "crossing the line from deterrence into escalation." Canada has about 200 soldiers stationed in Ukraine to assist the local military. It's unlikely they would be thrown into battle during a Russian invasion. Constanze Stelzenmüller, a security policy expert at the Brookings Institute, said Ukraine's military has improved greatly since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. The Kremlin has called for a guarantee that NATO won't expand eastward into areas that Russia considers part of its sphere of influence.

Separatists there, backed by Moscow, have been fighting Ukrainian government forces since 2014, and Russia recognized their enclaves this week as independent republics. Just weeks into 2022—amid Western refusal to give into Kremlin demands for a sphere of domination in Central and Eastern Europe—intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine appear more likely than ever. Ukraine’s ability to contain Russian aggression will shape the security environment for years to come.