Russia invades Ukraine: How will the UK help in fight against Vladimir Putin?

The war that erupted in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has already left 14,000 dead and an estimated 1.4 million displaced. As the war approaches its second anniversary, severe weapons shortages and worrying signs of waning Western support are undermining Ukraine’s war effort. This may lead Putin to conclude that he can still emerge victorious in his confrontation with the West, which is bound to encourage further provocations in future. Any full-scale invasion of Ukraine could be over in a matter of a few days.

• The fear is that if Russia is allowed to invade Ukraine unresisted, that might act as a signal to other leaders that the days of Western powers intervening in other conflicts are over.
• Before Western artillery arrived in the east last summer, Kyiv officials said 100 to 200 troops were dying every day.
• There's also been heavy street-to-street fighting in areas including the second largest city of Kharkiv.

The logistics of training a “Citizen Army” are also formidable, according to one former Territorial Army (TA) soldier. “If you are talking about mass mobilisation to defend the homeland, that is hundreds of thousands of people,” he said. Britain has also allowed ammunition supplies to dwindle to “dangerously low levels,” according to a Parliamentary Defence Committee report.

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If war broke out in Ukraine and Russian forces occupied large swathes of the country, many civilians might flee. But both of these demands would break key Nato principles, namely that the alliance should be open to any European country that wants to join and that all Nato members should be sovereign nations. The Prime Minister also suggested Britain could provide more military support to Ukraine as legislation to allow for tougher UK sanctions against Russia were expected to come into force today.

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• US leadership has once again proven essential in successfully mobilising international efforts, especially in coordinating military support to Ukraine.
• But Ukrainian forces are resisting, and Russian forces are said to still be about 30km (18.6 miles) from the city centre.
• "Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO's border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean."

But Ukrainian forces are resisting, and Russian forces are said to still be about 30km (18.6 miles) from the city centre. The United States is weighing whether to send Ukraine lightweight Stingers or other air defense systems and Iron Dome defenses against short-range missiles. The United States might provide Mi-17 helicopters, which were being readied for Afghanistan. Ukraine has bought Turkish TB-2 armed drones, which proved so effective in last year's Armenia-Azerbaijan war.

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It is called self-determination, and perhaps the most important aspect of this principle is that borders cannot be changed by invading armies. This was in return for Ukraine giving up its massive arsenal of nuclear weapons, a legacy of its membership of the Soviet Union. In 1994, the UK - along with the US - signed a memorandum at an international conference in Budapest promising "to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine". They also promised to provide assistance to Ukraine if it "should become a victim of an act of aggression". It has sent military equipment, weapons as  well as ammunition as well as anti-tank drones to Ukraine, however, Germany’s has refused to send “lethal weapons” to Ukraine. It comes as the UK has said that tougher sanctions against Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine will mean “a much broader range of individuals and businesses can be sanctioned due to their significance to the Kremlin”.

Labour's Keir Starmer and many Conservative backbenchers have called for further military options to be explored. So far the UK government has sent troops (now withdrawn) to train the Ukrainian army, and supplied them with defensive weapons. After 2,000 anti-tank weapons were delivered last week and 30 British troops arrived to teach Ukrainian forces how to use them, the phrase "God Save the Queen" began trending on Twitter in Ukraine. Some bars and restaurants in Kyiv were offering free drinks to anyone who had a UK passport. Moscow's economy would "gradually recover as sanctions inevitably erode" and its military would rebuild its coherence "drawing on a wealth of hard-won experience fighting mechanized warfare".

In a wide-ranging interview, the Ukrainian commander also said his navy would gladly take charge of two British warships the Royal Navy may reportedly have to retire early because of a shortage of sailors amid a recruitment crisis. Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa told Sky News the course of the  entire conflict would have been very different had Ukrainian forces been allowed to use western munitions without restrictions from the very beginning. The nation’s four Vanguard-class nuclear submarines can each carry up to 16 missiles.

Prof Chalmers said he did not think the UK would send over large equipment as Russia's superior force would destroy it quickly and Ukrainian forces would need training on how to use and maintain it. Russia has sent tanks over the border into Ukraine and Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said the UK and NATO allies will support Kyiv. The conflict is likely to remain confined to Ukraine and Russia in terms of actual fighting. This is a question lots of you put forward and has been tackled by our security and defence editor Deborah Haynes here... The dependence of many European countries on Russian gas may also contribute to upward pressure on commodity prices as they seek alternative supplies from elsewhere. Russia's aggression towards Ukraine has already driven the price of oil close to $100 per barrel – a level that, given the current strength of demand for oil and gas, is likely to be hit in coming days.

The devastation was felt most acutely in Kharkiv, where an apartment block was hit, killing two people, and injuring 35 residents.  https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-many-ukrainian-refugees-are-in-the-uk.html  is a Russian narrative that has gained some ground in Europe. Before the war, President Putin demanded Nato turn the clock back to 1997 and remove its forces and military infrastructure from Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Nato member states have increasingly sent Ukraine air defence systems to protect its cities, as well as missile systems, artillery and drones that helped turn the tide against Russia's invasion. Ukraine's position is that Russian troops must pull back beyond Ukraine's internationally recognised borders for there to be peace.

The prospect of formidable Ukrainian resistance could affect the Kremlin's risk-benefit calculus. If ground forces faltered, Russia could up the ante, such as by carpet bombing, a tactic it used in Chechnya and Aleppo. Warnings of an expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine have a “High Noon” feel. A renewed crisis could spur the United States and its NATO allies to go beyond, perhaps well beyond, their responses to Russia's 2014 assault. This militarization could cause a dramatic increase in defense spending by both the United States and NATO over the next decade.

It has cut diplomatic ties with Russia, offered weapons to anyone who wants them and declared an overnight curfew for Kyiv. But later on Thursday President Zelensky said Ukraine had suffered losses and a lot of aircraft and armoured vehicles had been destroyed. And he added that any intervention from outside powers to resist the Russian attack would be met with an "instant" and devastating response. Concrete decisions will matter more than any new organisational organigrams, and sophisticated plans or strategies are valuable only as long as they are made real. Russia has started to relish its role as a predator, and it is using brutal force to achieve its imperialist goals.

• He has called the possibility of Nato membership for Ukraine a “red line” for the Kremlin.
• The action has made it harder for Russia to enforce a naval blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports, imposed to reduce Kyiv's ability to export grain.
• The US estimates artillery, missile and bomb strikes and ground clashes could kill 50,000 civilians, a figure that may prove conservative if fighting is prolonged.
• Boris Johnson has made clear the UK will not send troops to Ukraine if Russia launches a full-scale invasion, but there are other ways of aiding the European ally.
• "People were out on the streets last night in this city - they were waving the Ukrainian flag. They said this was their land. They were going nowhere," she reported.
• This included £2.5 billion in military support and a historic long-term security agreement.

Hospitals, infrastructure, cultural treasures, private homes and industrial centres are either destroyed or pillaged, with stolen goods being sent to Russia in an organised manner. Nato is also working with Ukraine to modernise its armed forces and said it will help Ukraine defend against cyber attacks as well as supply it with secure communications equipment for the military. US forces will not get directly involved now, but military assistance will be swiftly provided by some Nato states, including lethal aid, intelligence-sharing and weapons such as man-portable missiles (as in Afghanistan). If fighting is prolonged and civilian casualties mount, pressure on the west to intervene will grow rapidly.