How does the Russian invasion of Ukraine affect the UK economy? Office for Budget Responsibility

Events in Ukraine have also seen global share prices fall and the price of gold rise - as investors worry about the possible impact of the conflict. As a result of the conflict, oil prices have surged past $100 (£75) a barrel to hit their highest level for more than seven years, which will impact already-rising petrol prices in the UK. He also tried to reassure the British public by promising to do "everything to keep our country safe" and work with allies "for however long it takes" to restore Ukraine's independence. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said the UK "cannot and will not just look away" at Russia's "hideous and barbaric" attack on Ukraine.

• Russian forces seized control of Crimea before the territory voted to join Russia in a referendum the West and Ukraine deemed illegal.
• Downing Street said the leaders agreed that if a further Russian incursion took place, "allies must enact swift retributive responses including an unprecedented package of sanctions".
• The prime minister did confirm that 1,000 more troops would be put on alert in the UK if Russia were to invade although Downing Street is likely to follow the lead set by Nato.
• There are reports of attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure across the country, and Russian convoys entering from all directions.

This is partly due to the relatively large share of services in UK output and relatively large shares of energy-intensive manufacturing in some other countries (Chart C). However, 76 per cent of the UK’s gross consumption comes from gas and oil compared with a European average of 57 per cent. So, as a net energy importer with a high dependence on gas and oil, higher global energy prices will still weigh heavily on the UK economy. On Tuesday, the chief of Norway’s armed forces said the country must increase defence spending in the face of a potential war with Russia within three years, following its neighbour Sweden in urging citizens to brace for conflict.

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He chaired an emergency Cobra meeting earlier and will give a televised statement later on the UK's response to Russia's "unprovoked attack". Russian military convoys have crossed from Belarus into Ukraine's northern Chernihiv region, and from Russia into the Sumy region, which is also in the north, Ukraine's border guard service (DPSU) said. Tanks and troops have poured into Ukraine at points along its eastern, southern and northern borders, Ukraine says. As cars queued on Ukraine's border with Moldova, the country's pro-EU president, Maia Sandu said she was declaring a state of emergency and was prepared to give help to tens of thousands of Ukrainians. "This renewed attack is a grave violation of international law, including the UN Charter," Nato said. "It constitutes an act of aggression against an independent peaceful country."

• It provides health care, education and other humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.
• But if Ukraine’s experience is anything to go by, the threat posed by a common enemy could have a unifying effect.
• It comes after a senior Nato military official warned that private citizens should prepare for an all-out war with Russia in the next 20 years, which would require wholesale change in their lives.
• Russia might use the crisis to launch cyber and other hybrid attacks on Nato countries.

Satellite imagery suggests Russia is sending troops towards its border with Ukraine. Russia denies it is preparing for an invasion and accuses Nato of upping its activity in the region. Streams of cars have been seen leaving major cities and are queuing to cross borders into neighbouring countries. A number of civilian areas have been targeted, including one apartment complex outside of Kharkiv - a city of 1.4 million people in north-eastern Ukraine. Mr Putin has accused the West of ignoring Russia's demands to prevent Ukraine from joining the western Nato military alliance and offer Moscow security guarantees. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen accused Mr Putin of "bringing war back to Europe" and warned a raft of "massive" sanctions would be proposed later aimed at Russia's economic base and its "capacity to modernise".

...and a potential migration crisis

A second night of attacks followed with heavy gunfire and explosions in parts of the capital. He said the UK's "baffling" decision to hold back sanctions until after Russia's incursion into Ukraine had not deterred Mr Putin. The only airlines still flying from the UK, Wizz Air and Ryanair, have suspended all flights to the country. UK nationals were advised two weeks ago to leave Ukraine while commercial flights were still available. Those remaining have again been urged to leave Ukraine immediately - if they judge it is safe to do so. Foreign Office minister James Cleverly warned Mr Putin's comments in recent days suggested he wanted to create "a wider Russian empire in all but name".

It followed the Kremlin ordering troops into the rebel-held Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk on recognising them as independent. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a "catastrophe for our continent", Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said. US President Joe Biden said Mr Putin had "chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering". Meanwhile Russia's currency, the rouble, fell to an all-time low against the dollar and the euro. "People were out on the streets last night in this city - they were waving the Ukrainian flag. They said this was their land. They were going nowhere," she reported. But later on Thursday President Zelensky said Ukraine had suffered losses and a lot of aircraft and armoured vehicles had been destroyed.

Ukraine is fighting back

Officials said there had been no specific threats to British diplomats but about half of the staff working in Kyiv will return to the UK. The US has ordered relatives of its embassy staff to leave, saying an invasion could come "at any time". He said the UK was "leading on creating a package of economic sanctions" against Russia and was supplying defensive weaponry to Ukraine. But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members such as cyber and hybrid warfare, and even physical attacks. Despite warnings from the US and its Nato allies that any invasion by Russia of Ukraine would have "severe economic consequences," Moscow's military build-up on the border continues. Balazs Orban, chief political aide to the prime minister, said Hungary sent a proposal to the EU over the weekend  showing it was open to using the budget for the aid package if other "caveats" were added.

This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which "might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO". If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says. European countries have largely outsourced much of their military capacity and thinking on strategy and security to the States through NATO. Phillips P OBrien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote in an analysis piece that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could see the US "neuter" the Western military alliance. Britain has also allowed ammunition supplies to dwindle to “dangerously low levels,” according to a Parliamentary Defence Committee report.

• True Russian cyberwarfare capabilities have proved something of a damp squib in Ukraine.
• The UK's Ministry of Defence said Russian forces based in Belarus were advancing towards Ukraine's capital Kyiv.
• In a post on Telegram, Hamas's press office said the group urged the UN and the international organisations "to not cave in to the threats and blackmail" from Israel.
• If Ukraine was part of Nato, the military alliance which is made up of 30 member states, including the US and UK, every Nato nation would have to launch an armed attack against Russia.
• Unfortunately, the attacks on Tuesday morning were just the latest of a series of acts of wanton destruction by Russia in Ukraine since we last gathered for a Permanent Council in December.
• But he said Russian forces massed on the border were still missing some crucial elements - such as full logistical support, ammunition stocks, field hospitals and blood banks.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss summoned Russia's ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, for the second time this week to ask him to explain the "illegal, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine". "Because this act of wanton and reckless aggression is an attack not just on Ukraine, it's an attack on democracy and freedom in eastern Europe and around the world." The UK's Ministry of Defence said Russian forces based  in Belarus were advancing towards Ukraine's capital Kyiv.  https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-china-saying-about-ukraine.html  "cannot and will not just look away" at Russia's "hideous and barbaric" attack on Ukraine, Boris Johnson has said.

• Belarus allowed Russian troops to enter its country to access Ukraine's northern border as part of the invasion.
• Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency.
• Nato says its forces are on standby and more ships and fighter jets are being sent to the region.
• As well as curbs on foreign consumer goods, there’d be runs on more basic products like medical kits, fuel canisters and masking tape to stop windows shattering during bombing raids.