How a Russian invasion of Ukraine could spill over into Europe

US officials have also pointed to an increase in Russia's social media "disinformation". The admiral described Russia's military build-up on its border with Ukraine as "deeply worrying". Those concerns have been echoed by Britain's most senior military officer.

• Then, Ukraine would redistribute this money depending on where this person is located,” he said.
• And they have made clear that they will not send combat troops to Ukraine.
• Meanwhile, other Western defence sources have expressed concern about an increase in signals intelligence and "chatter" being monitored which could signal Russia's preparedness to invade.
• He was not making a case for conscription or for an imminent call up of volunteers.

A succession of Western leaders, including President Joe Biden, have made the complex journey to Kyiv. The US estimates artillery, missile and bomb strikes and ground clashes could kill 50,000 civilians, a figure that may prove conservative if fighting is prolonged. Hundreds of thousands may flee, presenting Europe with a huge humanitarian and refugee emergency. Gross human rights violations and chemical weapons atrocities, as in Syria, cannot be ruled out. Intelligence imagery taken between September and December shows three Russian ships, the Maia, Angara and Maria, loading containers at North Korea’s revived Najin port before transiting to Russian ports in the far east.

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It has launched a wave of attacks on Russian oil facilities in recent weeks. Prominent Russian Telegram channels Baza and 112 said a  drone attacked the Slavenft-Yanos oil refinery in Yaroslavl at 7am local time (4am GMT). A Russian pensioner has been sentenced to five and a half years in prison for sharing a post on social media about the casualties suffered by the armed forces  in Ukraine . In Rostov, governor Vasily Golubev said a drone was downed over a campsite in the Neklinovsky district, which borders eastern Ukraine. “There are battles taking place near this locality,” ground forces spokesman Volodymyr Fityo said, admitting that the Russian army was “trying to advance in all directions”. Russian soldiers have taken control of a village in Ukraine’s north-eastern Kharkiv region, Moscow’s defence ministry claimed.

• Russia also has the world’s largest supply of operational nuclear warheads – at around 4,500 – making the threat of a nuclear attack the largest since the Cold War.
• The coming year will demonstrate whether Russia - and its suppliers in North Korea and Iran - or Ukraine - and its Western backers - are able and prepared to meet the voracious demands of industrial-age warfare.
• The danger, however, with sanctions is they push Moscow further away from the West and towards the East, meaning Mr Putin may develop yet closer relations with Beijing.
• It also called for the arrest of journalist Dmitry Nizovtsev and Anna Biryukova, the ACF’s head of public opinion research.
• The UK's defence secretary has also warned that we need to be prepared for a war.

Nato uses a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. Basic food supplies in African and Asian countries that depend on Ukraine, the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter in 2020, will be hit. Additional, defensive Nato deployments on Russia’s borders could increase the risk of Europe-wide conflagration. The primary aim would be the rapid capitulation of Ukraine’s government in Kyiv and the “neutralisation” of its elected leaders. Key targets would include the presidential palace, parliament, ministries, media outlets and the Maidan Nezalezhnosti – the symbolic site of Ukraine’s pro-democracy revolutions.

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Indeed, for all the foreboding about societal collapse, facing a common threat could give Britain a new-found sense of unity – something many Ukrainians speak of. Just as there was the “Clap for Carers” during the pandemic, similar rituals might take place for those serving at the front. And for every shirker or draft-dodger, others might take pride in national duty, be it manning a machine gun post or cleaning the streets.

UN ambassadors have told a new BBC documentary about the moment they learned of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. If we took casualties at the rate the Ukrainians are taking them, the NHS would immediately be overwhelmed, and for years we’ve missed recruitment targets for the Armed Forces. “Covid showed our ugly side, with people getting upset when all they were being asked to do was sit on the sofa at home,” said the former TA soldier.

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“I put forward the UK’s point of view on the current situation as well as seeking to deter Russia from an invasion of Ukraine,” she said. He said the intelligence on the prospect of an invasion was “grim”, but added that he did not believe Vladimir Putin had made a decision on whether to act. Russia denies it plans to invade, but has more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border. "Russia can pose a major conventional military threat to NATO for the first time since the 1990s in a timeframe set to a considerable extent by how much the Kremlin invests in its military." With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol.

An offensive of that size has not been seen in Europe since the second world war. Russia could also justify a further invasion  of Ukraine by recognising the territorial claims of the two separatist governments. They include the large city of Mariupol, which is on the other side of the frontlines.