How a Russian invasion of Ukraine could affect you : NPR

Ammunition has come from North Korea, which  continues to provide Russia with all kinds of rounds for shells, and Iran has stepped up with the production of drones. Iran and North Korea both see this as a kind of international opening for them. If Russia prevails on the battlefield, you can be sure that Iran and North Korea will get benefits from this. We already see Russia shifting its position on the Iranian nuclear front, and we also see Russia making a major shift in its relationship with Israel. Putin has gone from being a major supporter of Israel, to now an opponent, and has switched from what was always very careful public rhetoric about Israel to pretty antisemitic statements. On the contrary, he presented himself as a supporter of the Jewish population.

As long as there is no direct conflict between Russia and Nato then there is no reason for this crisis, bad as it is, to descend into a full-scale world war. If you are a frontline Ukrainian soldier in eastern Ukraine then clearly the situation is extremely dangerous. And for millions of Ukrainian people the fears over how the crisis will impact their daily lives is ever present. Despite the success of these negotiations over grains, the Brookings’ Stent worries that the squeeze on energy supply chains—either as a result of the war or sanctions on Russia—will make it “increasingly difficult to sustain Western unity” in the long term. Russia has already cut gas supplies to Europe and a Shell chief has warned Europe may have to ration energy this winter.

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Western countries have condemned the threat and are likely to impose sanctions on Moscow this week. And they have made clear that they will not send combat troops to Ukraine. The Russian president has recognised the independence of two Russian-controlled territories in east Ukraine. They call themselves the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The territories have been armed, financed and politically controlled by Russia since 2014. But until this week, Russia still recognised them as part of Ukraine.

• In the meantime, Nato has focussed on shoring up its eastern borders.
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• "[Putin] is now facing a precarious domestic situation, with no expectation of upcoming military successes for Russia on the battlefield," Dr Genauer said.
• He is an obstacle for Putin to be able to win on the battlefield of Ukraine.

Following Ukrainian successes early on in the war, Russia has turned its attention towards Ukraine’s easternmost Donbas border region—and the more recent phase of the war has been going more in Moscow’s favor. Still, analysts tell TIME that it could be a long road ahead, with negotiations largely abandoned and fierce fighting ongoing. The West looked on in horror on February 24 as Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since the war broke out, bloody fighting and attacks on civilians have resulted in at least tens of thousands of deaths, the displacement of 12 million Ukrainians abroad or within the country, and at least $100 billion of infrastructure damage.

What could war look like?

Under Article 5 of the military alliance's charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all. But Mr Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership. If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further. We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This same logic can be applied to the use of nuclear weapons.

"We have seen Russia use tactics of decimating cities and civilian infrastructure in past conflicts in Chechnya and as part of Russia's military support for President Assad in Syria," Dr Genauer said. There is a very good chance that it will, because it will open up the question — you had a country that gave up nuclear weapons, didn’t keep any at all, was given guarantees of its security, and then it got invaded and partitioned. A win, as I’ve just said, would be a distinct end to the war with a ceasefire and the partition  of Ukraine. Any Ukrainians who are in the occupied and partitioned territories of Ukraine will be forced to become Russians, we’re already seeing that.

Bombing of civilians, rocket fire and artillery, smashing cities, a million refugees; that what looked impossible before now looks within the realm,” said Daniel Fried, a former ambassador to Poland and current fellow at the Atlantic Council. Russia’s strategic setbacks have undermined its mission to take Ukraine, but it has only exacerbated the brutal and indiscriminate war, not even a month old. Concrete decisions will matter more than any new organisational organigrams, and sophisticated plans or strategies are valuable only as long as they are made real. Russia has started to relish its role as a predator, and it is using brutal force to achieve its imperialist goals. Even weakened, Russia remains capable of inflicting heavy damage upon others. Only  https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-did-boris-johnson-travel-to-ukraine.html  and credible force will be able to stop it.

• Russian actions that destabilize the wider region could push Turkey back toward the United States, which could in turn drive a wedge between Ankara and Moscow.
• But if he looks like a loser who is significantly reducing Russian power on the world stage and damaging others’ interests in the process, then there may be more international pressure for the Russians to get their act together, resolve this war and move on.
• In 2018, he showed a boastful video simulating a nuclear-armed missile attacking Florida.
• Russia could also employ devastating cyberattacks and disinformation tools, backed by the threat of force, to cripple the country and induce regime change.
• "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak.

Over six million (at the time of writing) have had to flee Ukraine; many more have been internally displaced. Hospitals, infrastructure, cultural treasures, private homes and industrial centres are either destroyed or pillaged, with stolen goods being sent to Russia in an organised manner. Last week, former CIA director and retired army general David Petraeus said the US and its allies would destroy Russia's troops and equipment in Ukraine and sink its Black Sea fleet if Mr Putin used nuclear weapons in the conflict. But also in terms of nuclear weapons, we could face proliferation issues with Japan, South Korea, other countries — even NATO countries who currently see themselves covered under the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life. Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas.

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• Alternatively, the defeat of the Ukrainian military and the negotiation of a Ukrainian surrender could effectively transform Ukraine into a failed state.
• That is another major reason why Putin would see the U.S. and its allies stepping back as a major win, because then there’d be no leverage whatsoever or pressure put on Russia for rebuilding Ukraine.
• The country is a major source of neon, which is used in manufacturing semiconductors.