Five ways Russias invasion of Ukraine has changed UK government

At least 32 people have died in Ukraine's capital in that time, 30 of them in one attack - on 29 December, when Russia launched one of the largest ever aerial attacks of this war. Balazs Orban, chief political aide to the prime minister, said Hungary sent a proposal to the EU over the weekend showing it was open to using the budget for the aid package if other "caveats" were added. Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl. Ukraine said on Friday that Russia had returned the bodies of 77 soldiers, the AFP news agency reports, days after the crash of a Russian military transport plane threw doubt on the future of such exchanges. “The two leaders will reaffirm their resolute support for Ukraine’s defence of its land and its people against Russia’s war of aggression,” the White House said in a statement Saturday. Kyiv has neither confirmed nor denied that its forces downed a Russian military transport plane that day, but Ukrainian officials earlier this week confirmed that a prisoner swap was due to happen on Wednesday.

• Madame Chair, last but not least I also wanted to highlight today the UK’s continued concern for our three OSCE colleagues of the Special Monitoring Mission detained by Russia.
• The Covid lockdown, which saw fights breaking out in queues at supermarkets and garages, was a glimpse of how trouble can spark during times of nationwide panic.
• But his remark lives on as a challenge to all policymakers thinking about whether to engage diplomatically - and even militarily - in a potential conflict between two foreign countries.
• Sources have revealed that in intercepted military communications, Russian soldiers have been frantic as soon as they realise one is nearby or above them, because it means they are likely to come under accurate fire.
• “I put forward the UK’s point of view on the current situation as well as seeking to deter Russia from an invasion of Ukraine,” she said.

The latest versions of those weapons includes the NLAWs (Next generation Light Anti-tank Weapons) and Javelins. Tanks and troops have poured into Ukraine at points along its eastern, southern and northern borders, Ukraine says. The UK government is providing a range of economic, humanitarian and defensive military assistance to Ukraine, and is imposing additional sanctions on Russia and Belarus. Peter Ricketts, the UK’s former national security adviser, joined us to discuss the Ukraine crisis. But we now see more clearly that, in a crisis, for the foreseeable future UK interests are aligned with the US and Europe, especially if China aligns itself more with Russia.  https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-happens-if-ukraine-falls.html  of NATO’s purpose and a unified western response have been a necessary if painful reminder of where UK interests truly lie.

Hungary previously said it would block further financial aid to Ukraine, but this morning suggested it was ready to compromise after the EU reportedly drew up plans to hit Budapest's economy. "The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says. A prominent war expert says the US is on the verge of lessening its support for, or even withdrawing from, NATO - with potentially catastrophic consequences for Europe. Hundreds of captured prisoners have been freed in dozens of exchanges throughout the war, but Russia’s claims that Ukraine shot down a plane ferrying Ukrainian detainees has thrown the future of such exchanges into doubt. Turkey’s parliament ratified Sweden’s Nato membership on Tuesday after more than a year of delays that upset western efforts to show resolve over Russia’s war in Ukraine. The US did not green light the transaction until Turkey’s instruments of ratification of Sweden’s membership had arrived in Washington, a US official said, highlighting the highly sensitive nature of the negotiations, AFP reports.

European security

Also, bear in mind there is an information war going on with both sides trying to intimidate the other. Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeated that over the weekend, saying Ukraine is not a part of NATO and therefore not entitled to NATO's one for all, all for one protection. He says he is doing it because the break up of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 21st century for the Russian people. And he has written extensively about how Russians and Ukrainians are one people.

• “If you are talking about mass mobilisation to defend the homeland, that is hundreds of thousands of people,” he said.
• "People were out on the streets last night in this city - they were waving the Ukrainian flag. They said this was their land. They were going nowhere," she reported.
• Peter Ricketts, the UK’s former national security adviser, joined us to discuss the Ukraine crisis.
• The intensity, regularity and indiscriminate nature of Russia’s attacks may violate international humanitarian law, is extremely concerning and must stop.
• The size of its active armed forces is only 19,000 personnel, but it can call on another 238,000 reserves.

Convoys have also entered the eastern Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, and moved into the Kherson region from Crimea - a territory that Russia annexed from Ukraine in  2014. He urged Ukrainian soldiers in the combat zone to lay down their weapons and go home, but said clashes were inevitable and "only a question of time". Russia did not want to occupy Ukraine, he said, but would demilitarise and "de-Nazify" the country.

Ukraine crisis: What’s at stake for the UK?

On Wednesday, the UK announced a package of sanctions against Russia as part of a co-ordinated Western response to the crisis. Mr Putin also urged Ukrainian soldiers in the combat zone in the east of the country to lay down their weapons and return to their homes, warning that Moscow's response would be "instant" if anyone tried to take on Russia. The prospect of further UK sanctions against Russia comes a day after the prime minister announced that five Russian banks had had their assets frozen and three Russian billionaires would have travel bans imposed. The dependence of many European countries on Russian gas may also contribute to upward pressure on commodity prices as they seek alternative supplies from elsewhere. On 24 January Nato announced it was putting forces on standby and sending additional ships and fighter jets to Nato deployments in eastern Europe, “reinforcing Allied deterrence and defence”.

Over the Christmas period, Russia launched hundreds of missile and drone strikes across cities in Ukraine including Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Lviv. This culminated on 29 December, when Russian unleashed its largest aerial assault against Ukraine since the war began. It killed at least 41 civilians, including a 15-year-old boy, wounded hundreds, and caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including a maternity hospital. Ukraine has neither confirmed nor denied that its forces downed the plane and said there is no proof of who was on board.

Five ways Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed UK government

So far the UK government has sent troops (now withdrawn) to train the Ukrainian army, and supplied them with defensive weapons. The UK's defence secretary has also warned that we need to be prepared for a war. In his first major speech on defence, Grant Shapps said the country was moving from a "post war to a pre-war world". Before the war, it was expected that one of the first lines of attack from Russia in any conflict would be a major cyber assault, both on Russia's opposing combatant, and potentially on its allies. So far, that has yet to happen, with relatively few reported cyber attacks linked  to Russia in the last few months.

• After 2,000 anti-tank weapons were delivered last week and 30 British troops arrived to teach Ukrainian forces how to use them, the phrase "God Save the Queen" began trending on Twitter in Ukraine.
• Fighting could spread into Belarus where Russian forces are already stationed.
• Ms Truss today told Mr Lavrov that an invasion of Ukraine by Russia would have “massive consequences and carry severe costs”.
• Russia has gradually built up a force of close to 190,000 troops around the Ukrainian border over the last few weeks but maintained that it had no intention to invade – until last night.

The war has strengthened political consensus that domestic renewables offer the cheapest and most secure form of energy. Conservative backbencher Alicia Kearns tweeted on Thursday that the Government should consider cyber attacks on Russia if Mr Putin does not withdraw troops. The UK therefore faces price rises on three fronts as a result of the invasion – oil, gas and food – at a time when inflation is already high and many are facing a cost-of-living crisis. Oil prices have also risen since the invasion, given Russia’s role as an oil producer and as a form of security for investors as the stock market slumps. The country is one of the world’s largest grain suppliers, meaning conflict is likely to cause supply problems, especially in Europe.

The danger, however, with sanctions is they push Moscow further away from the West and towards the East, meaning Mr Putin may develop yet closer relations with Beijing. There has also been pressure from opposition parties for Ofcom to strip Kremlin-backed TV channel RT of its broadcasting license. German authorities made a similar step earlier this month, but Moscow would likely retaliate by expelling UK journalists from Russia.

Turkey will get 40 new F-16s and upgrades to 79 of the jets in its existing fleet, the state department said in a news release. They engaged Ukrainian troops in 98 combat engagements, and carried out four air strikes and 78 shellings with reactive bullets. Russian forces struck the settlement of Maly Burluk on 17 January with an aerial bomb, Synegubov said. EU leaders are expected to meet again on 1 February to suss out the financial package.

A year after Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, five IfG experts examine the impact of the war on the UK. Four extra RAF Typhoon jets have been deployed to British bases in Cyprus, while patrol ship HMS Trent has joined Nato vessels in the eastern Mediterranean. Another ship, destroyer HMS Diamond, is scheduled to join it but has suffered technical difficulties, delaying its departure.

• After months of delays, Turkey’s parliament approved Sweden’s Nato membership this week.
• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen accused Mr Putin of "bringing war back to Europe" and warned a raft of "massive" sanctions would be proposed later aimed at Russia's economic base and its "capacity to modernise".
• “The two leaders will reaffirm their resolute support for Ukraine’s defence of its land and its people against Russia’s war of aggression,” the White House said in a statement Saturday.
• Reuters could not independently verify its account of what happened and what evidence had been recovered.
• Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the UK should brace itself for the "economic pain" the country will experience by imposing sanctions against Russia.

Carlos Del Toro, the US navy secretary, has urged the UK to “reassess” the size of its armed forces given “the threats that exist today”. The Biden administration has announced the approval of a $23bn deal to sell F-16 warplanes to Turkey, after Ankara ratified Sweden’s Nato membership, the state department said. Writing on Twitter, he added the US and its allies and partners would impose "severe sanctions on Russia" and continue to provide support to Ukraine and its people. The latest move by Russia has drawn international condemnation, with US President Joe Biden denouncing Russia's military action as an "unprovoked and unjustified attack", declaring "the world will hold Russia accountable". Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the defence select committee, said the West had failed to alter the trajectory of the Russian invasion.