Does the UK need to change its defence strategy after the Ukraine war?

Belarus allowed Russian troops to enter its country to access Ukraine's northern border as part of the invasion. The Prime Minister said the UK was one of the first countries in Europe to send defensive weapons to help Ukraine. The US, EU, UK and Japan have imposed financial penalties, called sanctions, against leading Russians and Russian banks. Russian forces launched a major military assault on Ukraine on Thursday morning, with reports of missile strikes and explosions near major cities. One risk is that leaks and arguments about the size of the army, military procurement and GDP percentages distract from a serious reckoning on what a new war in Europe means for the post-Cold War ‘peace dividend’ that has benefited us all.

However, Ukraine’s role as a major food producer is reflected in the UK’s import statistics. This could include sanctions on more oligarchs – for instance, Chelsea FC owner and ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin Roman Abramovich – or larger banks such as Sberbank or VTB, which has already been sanctioned by the US and EU. There are also 53 entities on the sanctions list, which mainly covers Russian-backed militias in eastern Ukraine but also includes a number  of companies and the five Russian banks added on Tuesday.

Boris Johnson Accuses Russia Of 'False Flag' Operation In Ukraine

“If you are talking about mass mobilisation to defend the homeland, that is hundreds of thousands of people,” he said. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who has been serving prison time since 2021 after leading street protests and starting a nationwide opposition movement, was recently moved to a penal colony in Russia's far north. As expected, Vladimir Putin has been officially registered as a candidate for the Russian presidential election this March. However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine. Mr Szijarto will be in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba and presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak.

The UK stands with Ukraine, its democratically-elected government and its brave people at this awful time. The foreign secretary also warned last week that harsh UK sanctions could have far-reaching consequences. He said the situation generally is "not looking good for Ukraine", as it deals with shortages of ammunition, low morale among its troops and continued attacks by Russia on its infrastructure. He added that there were "only a small number" of these aircraft within the Russian air force, and "even fewer trained mission crews, meaning that the loss of one would be a major blow".

How will the UK respond to the Ukrainian invasion?

But one economist has warned it could rise close to 10% in major Western economies if the cost of energy  and food is pushed up by dwindling supplies cause by the Russian-Ukraine conflict. For now the UK appears likely to stick to sanctions rather than engaging in direct military action unless a Nato ally is attacked, although some Conservative MPs have called for the Government to provide air support to Ukraine. The UK therefore faces price rises on three fronts as a result of the invasion – oil, gas and food – at a time when inflation is already high and many are facing a cost-of-living crisis. In addition to capturing these impacts on the UK economy forecast, there is a smaller, though significant, impact on the fiscal forecast from lower UK equity prices, which have fallen in the wake of the Russian invasion.

Russian officials said they had "no information" about the attacks, but prominent pro-war Russian commentators have said the loss of an A-50 would be significant. Army chief Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi said the air force had "destroyed" an A-50 long range radar detection aircraft, and an Il-22 control centre plane. Unfortunately, the attacks on Tuesday morning were just the latest of a series of acts of wanton destruction by Russia in Ukraine since we last gathered for a Permanent Council in December. Over the Christmas period, Russia launched hundreds of missile and drone strikes across cities in Ukraine including Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Lviv.

Another potential threat could come from anti-war politicians, whom Kremlin propagandists might seek to incite. In extremis, a wartime government could inter anyone deemed a threat to public order or the war effort. The conflict in Ukraine offers a glimpse of how Britain might prepare for self-defence. Checkpoints and pillboxes would be built at motorway junctions and city entrances. Public buildings and metro stations would be used as air raid shelters, while anti-aircraft guns might be hidden in parks. After an uneasy peace with Ukraine, Moscow has sent forces into the Baltics, clashing with British troops based there to protect Nato’s eastern flank.

• If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says.
• Several European countries bordering Ukraine are already preparing for the arrival of refugees fleeing the Russian invasion.
• But because the UK operates in international gas markets, prices will be hit by any drop in global supply.
• Ukraine has imposed martial law across the country, meaning the military has taken control temporarily, and traffic jams have built up as people attempt to flee Kyiv.
• War in Ukraine is almost certain to exacerbate cost-of-living problems in the UK.

The Russian president said his goal was the “demilitarisation” of Ukraine, warning that if the West were to interfere they would endure “consequences they had never seen”. He said he was launching a “special military operation” in the east of the country. Russia has gradually built up a force of close to 190,000 troops around the Ukrainian border over the last few weeks but maintained that it had no intention to invade – until last night. Many analysts say Beijing in particular is looking on as it formulates its own plans to reunify Taiwan with mainland China. The fear is that if Russia is allowed to invade Ukraine unresisted, that might act as a signal to other leaders that the days of Western powers intervening in other conflicts are over.

• Our fiscal forecast captures the direct effect of lower equity prices on capital gains tax on the disposal of financial assets, though we do not assume any indirect wealth effect from lower equity prices on consumption and GDP.
• Military kit also needs boots on the ground to operate it – hence Sir Patrick’s call for a “Citizen Army” to boost the regular Armed Forces.
• A spate of Ukraine-linked attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure have reportedly led Moscow's energy ministry to propose restricting flights over energy facilities.
• The war has strengthened political consensus that domestic renewables offer the cheapest and most secure form of energy.