Could an End to the War in Ukraine Be in Sight?

Such as move will deepen the conflict around the invasion of Ukraine, may result in the use of heavier and more deadly armaments and further entangle Ukraine in a proxy war. We send our solidarity to all those campaigning for an end to the war, often under very difficult conditions, in Russia and Ukraine. Stop the War can best support them by demanding a change in Britain’s own policy, which can be seen to have failed. Beyond that, there now needs to be a unified effort to develop pan-European security arrangements which meet the needs of all states, something that should have been done when the Warsaw Pact was wound up at the end of the Cold War.

And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control. Maybe Russia cannot provide enough troops to cover such a vast country. Ukraine's defensive forces transform into an effective insurgency, well-motivated and supported by local populations. And then, perhaps after many years, with maybe new leadership in Moscow, Russian forces eventually leave Ukraine, bowed and bloodied, just as their predecessors left Afghanistan in 1989 after a decade fighting Islamist insurgents. Our focus has to stay on shifting British government policy and opening up thereby prospects for a negotiated end to the war. The key elements are Putin abandoning his aggression, Ukrainian neutrality and sovereignty, a democratic solution to the national question in Ukraine’s east with some form of agreement on the status of Crimea.

Chilling moment Russian TV discusses plans to invade Baltic states after Ukraine

All three elements can be countered, the first two by added support from NATO, starting with the recent US decision to supply some of its own most effective counter-missile defences including the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS). As to hybrid warfare, that may be more difficult to counter, but it remains risky for Russia because of the risk of exposure. In any case, it is the far cheaper and cruder Iranian Shahed drone that is causing more concern to NATO, even as Ukraine finds success on the battlefield. Ukraine may say that it has shot down 200, but its own intelligence people estimate that the Russians have already bought 2,000. They are also reported to be setting up their own production line for what is, by current standards, a low-tech weapon costing $10,000 each.

• During President Putin's marathon state address on Feb. 21, he accused Western countries of attempting "to deprive Russia of these historical territories that are now called Ukraine," making war the only way to "protect the people in our historical lands."
• A second way for Ukraine to win — at least theoretically — would be through a diplomatic agreement.
• Even if Putin were to be assassinated now, I’m not sure that these hawks wouldn’t simply escalate the war and press on.
• A durable ceasefire, often accompanied by a disengagement of forces, promises more lasting relief.

So, in recent years, Ukrainians have reached further into their history to argue that Ukrainian independence existed before the fall of the Soviet Union, or even the Russian Empire before it. When the Soviet Union crumbled in 1991, the new Russian Federation inherited all of the USSR's treaties, diplomatic relationships, even embassies. Meanwhile, Ukraine had to pretty much start from scratch, establishing its own treaties and erecting embassies for the first time without approval from Moscow. Russian Communist supporters hold flags including one of the Soviet Union, as they take part in a rally next to the Karl Marx monument, marking the "Defender of the Fatherland Day," the former "Day of the Soviet Army", in downtown Moscow on Feb. 23. People often accuse Putin of wanting to resurrect the Soviet Union. Yet one could argue that Putin is more interested in gathering the lands of the Russian empire.

Want to support the people in Ukraine? Here's how you can help

The functions and powers of the Security Council are set out in the UN Charter, the Organization's founding document. It was signed on 26 June 1945, in San Francisco, at the conclusion of the United Nations Conference on International Organizations and came into force on 24 October 1945. Ukraine’s mix-and-match weapons—a “Mr Potato Head” arsenal, as some call it—cause problems elsewhere.

• A little earlier, we told you about a report in the Financial Times that the EU was proposing to sabotage Hungary's economy if Budapest blocks further aid for Ukraine this week.
• Kuwait had been liberated and Iraqi forces were in retreat – attacks on them from the air were causing carnage.
• Senior Ukrainian officials who spoke to the BBC here in Kyiv all argued that President Putin could not ride out a catastrophic loss of authority.

But it will give Russian forces a more easily defended line along the Dnieper river. Some have been rushed into battle with little training or equipment to hold the line; the rest may be used for a renewed push next year. But they are a reminder that, eight months after his unprovoked invasion, Mr Putin keeps looking for ways to raise the stakes. Some worry he might blow up a dam on the Dnieper river, as Stalin did in 1941, to slow his adversaries’ advance.

“The guns are talking now, but in the end we all know that the path of diplomacy and accountability is the road to a just and sustainable peace, in line with the UN Charter and international law,” the Secretary-General said. The economic consequences of the war are themselves escalating. Many countries are facing hunger – even starvation – as food and fertiliser supplies are disrupted and prices rocket. Some of this is the direct consequence of the invasion, which has blockaded Ukrainian exports, and more is the consequences of sanctions imposed on Russia.

Because it would be hard to reverse after ratification by 32 NATO member parliaments, NATO accession — ideally by the end of 2024 — would also frustrate Putin’s plan to draw out the war until political winds in the West change. Meanwhile, there is no guarantee that the United States and its allies will continue paying for Ukraine’s offensive operations for as long as it takes. Getting Biden’s recent supplemental funding request for Ukraine through the House of Representatives will be hard, and that money would last only through early 2024.  https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-many-russian-tanks-have-been-destroyed-in-ukraine.html  knows that the leading Republican candidate for president next year, former President Donald Trump, would end U.S. support for Ukraine, and that there are others like him in Europe.

If this continues, Ukrainian sovereignty may be at stake, which is dangerous and perhaps even stupid of Putin, who seems to be committing himself to total victory. If he can’t get it, he’ll be responsible and that makes a coup against him more likely. In a recent analysis, Hein Goemans and his coauthors argue that the prospects for a negotiated peace in Ukraine are bleak—with three major hurdles to a lasting settlement. It's perhaps the only thing more complicated than sanctions enforcement, and this question touches on both. The U.S. is also training about 100 Ukrainians on the Patriot anti-missile system in Oklahoma. The Western countries have gone from training the Ukrainians on specific systems to training larger units  on how to carry out coordinated attacks.

Russia’s progress may be slowed, but it’s highly unlikely to be stopped, far less pushed out of Ukraine, and in the meantime the grinding destruction and hideous war crimes will continue. So attention has turned to interim, or alternative, arrangements. In September Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former secretary-general of NATO, and Andriy Yermak, Mr Zelensky’s chief of staff, proposed a “Kyiv Security Compact” which would offer security assistance short of a mutual-defence pact.

• The Security Council voted on Sunday to call for a rare emergency special session of the 193-member UN General Assembly on Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, which will be held on Monday.
• It takes the lead in determining the existence of a threat to the peace, breach of the peace or an act of aggression.
• When one side expects victory and sees no need for a negotiation, then it may take some serious escalation by the other to force a change of mind.
• Even if Moscow did make an offer, the Ukrainians would be disinclined to accept.

That is a reminder that intelligence has its limits - particularly in predicting some of the complexities of war and the uncertainties of people's morale and reaction. And for all its success before the war, Western spies concede that intelligence cannot tell them for sure what will happen next. There was, as forecast, a full invasion from multiple directions with the purpose of toppling and replacing the Zelensky government. American and British spies both believe that  publicising this material robbed Moscow of the ability to justify the invasion to its own people and other countries as a defensive move. Some European partners did not buy the analysis that Russia's build-up was anything more than bluff. A scepticism about Anglo-American intelligence was also another legacy of Iraq's missing weapons of mass destruction.

It need not do so overtly; it can simply withhold the arms Ukraine needs, as it already does to an extent. It declines to provide Western aircraft, Patriot air-defence missiles and longer-range ATACMS strike missiles for fear that they might goad Russia to use nuclear weapons. A pause to play at diplomacy may suit Mr Putin for a time—particularly if it allows him to consolidate some territorial gains.